8 Dec 23 Practice Results (CVX)

Ticker: CVX

Date	Trade	Quantity	Entry	Stop Loss	Profit Target	Reason	Result	Remarks
6 Apr 10	Buy	1	77.95	74.98	80.92	Momentum trade	Profit after 8 days
2 Sep 10	Buy	1	77.11	72.47	81.75	Breakout from horizontal consolidation	Profit after 20 days
11 Nov 10	Buy	1	85.42	81.81	89.03	Breakout from pullback	Loss after 9 days
3 Dec 10	Buy	1	84.87	80.31	89.43	Breakout from pullback and momentum trade	Profit after 12 days
12 Jan 11	Buy	0.5	92.56	88.5	96.62	Breakout from pullback	Profit after 15 days
22 Feb 11	Buy	1	99.43	95	103.86	Breakout from pullback	Profit after 2 days
26 Apr 11	Buy	0.5	108.54	102.8	114.28	Momentum trade	Loss after 8 days	Volume is a major clue
30 Jun 11	Buy	1	101.99	96.9	107.08	Momentum trade and reversal bar	Profit after 13 days
21 Jul 11	Buy	0.5	108	103.5	112.5	Breakout from pullback and momentum trade	Loss after 7 days	Resistance is too near. Thus only took half trade
7 Oct 11	Buy	0.5	95.01	86.58	103.44	Momentum trade and reversal bar	Profit after 8 days
21 Oct 11	Buy	1	104.7	97.87	111.53	Outside bar, momentum trade, and support	Breakeven after 8 days (or 50% loss because of gap down)
26 Jan 12	Buy	0.5	108.2	103.41	112.99	Outside bar and breakout from Dojis	Loss after 2 days
14 Mar 12	Buy	0.5	111.51	107	116.02	Breakout from Dojis	Loss after 7 days
1 May 12	Buy	1	106.9	100.41	113.39	Momentum trade and reversal bar	Loss after 12 days
2 Jul 12	Buy	1	105.71	98.07	113.35	Momentum trade	Profit after 29 days
7 Sep 12	Buy	0.5	113.64	110	117.28	Breakout after pullback	Profit after 6 days
15 Jan 13	Buy	1	113.15	108	118.3	Breakout from pullback and momentum trade	Profit after 35 days
22 Mar 13	Buy	1	121.08	117.3	124.86	Breakout from pullback and momentum trade	Loss after 9 days
11 Apr 13	Buy	0.5	120.03	116.07	123.99	Momentum trade at support	Loss after 5 days
2 May 13	Buy	1	122.21	118	126.42	Breakout from pullback and momentum trade	Profit after 15 days
10 Jul 13	Buy	0.5	123.94	118.56	129.32	Momentum trade	Breakeven after 18 days
10 Sep 13	Buy	1	122.95	118.91	126.99	Breakout of outside bar	Loss after 18 days
7 Nov 13	Buy	1	121.61	116.9	126.32	Momentum trade at support	Loss after 54 days

Statistics

Win	Loss	Breakeven
9.5	7.5	1.5

Net Win = 2

However, the breakeven trade is likely to result in a partial loss cos it gapped down after I adjust to breakeven. In addition, two profitable trades took more than 25 days. As such, I should adjust the statistics as follows:

Win	Loss	Breakeven
7.5	10	1

Net Win = -2.5

Clearly, I need to do better. I need to find more reliable setups and be patient to trade them only. Buy maybe I am falling sick… let’s hope it’s not Covid.

Losing Trades Analysis

The chart on the left shows the price action and volume for the 26 Apr 11 trade. I wrote that low volume should be a major clue. Given that price was approaching the all time high price set a few bars back, and that bar A is a gap up, one should expect the volume for bar A to be higher than average, which was not the case.

However, sometimes things are not as straightforward. The chart on the right shows another breakout trade on very low volume that works. Perhaps, the left chart is different because it is a gap up. Gap up on such low volume is highly suspicious.

Besides the 26 Apr 11 losing trade, had 4 losing trades in a row from Oct 11 to May 12. The main reason is the stock’s inability to break above resistance. I was impatient and worried that the stock will break away from me once it breaks above resistance. Hence, repeated made a few trades in anticipation of it breaking above resistance. I should not be worried about it breaking away, as I can always enter a momentum trade.

My definition of a momentum trade is 3 consecutive strong bull bars in an uptrend. I can enter above the high of the third bar and in most cases use the low of the first bar as stop loss.

Another psychological mistake I made is holding on to the belief that stocks that made ATH are strong and likely to continue on a strong bull trend after that. Made a lot of wrong trades because of this belief.

OMG! I need to do better. But I will. I have to. I don’t have a choice.