Ticker: SWN
| Date | Trade | Quantity | Entry | Stop Loss | Exit | Percentage Profit | Remarks |
| 5 Feb 10 | Sell | 1 | 41.71 | 45.86 | 43.78 | -49.88% | |
| 23 Feb 10 | Sell | 1 | 43.11 | 45.98 | 42.93 | 6.27% | Stop loss was based on a recent high instead of the indicator |
| 10 Mar 10 | Buy | 1 | 44.6 | 40.57 | 41.71 | -71.71% | |
| 19 Mar 10 | Sell | 1 | 39.6 | 44.11 | 40.44 | -18.63% | |
| 19 Apr 10 | Sell | 1 | 40.06 | 42.75 | 42.35 | -85.13% | |
| 3 Jun 10 | Buy | 1 | 40.56 | 36.65 | 43.21 | 67.77% | |
| 28 Jun 10 | Sell | 1 | 40.54 | 45.25 | 39.18 | 28.87% | |
| 12 Aug 10 | Sell | 1 | 34.38 | 38.31 | 33.54 | 21.37% | |
| 30 Sep 10 | Buy | 1 | 33.93 | 31.57 | 33.82 | -4.66% | |
| 9 Nov 10 | Buy | 1 | 38.46 | 34.82 | 37.37 | -29.95% | |
| 15 Dec 10 | Sell | 1 | 35.02 | 37.14 | 36.46 | -67.92% | |
| 26 Jan 11 | Buy | 1 | 39.4 | 37.51 | 38.7 | -37.04% | Stop loss was based on bar low |
| 28 Feb 11 | Buy | 1 | 39.56 | 36.06 | 37.33 | -63.71% | |
| 14 Mar 11 | Buy | 1 | 38.58 | 35.72 | 41.93 | 117.13% | Stop loss was based on recent low. If based on indicator, MAY have been stopped out as entry bar is a large outside bar. |
| 7 Apr 11 | Sell | 1 | 41.09 | 43.53 | 40.55 | 22.13% | |
| 3 Jun 11 | Sell | 1 | 41.63 | 44.23 | 44.23 | -100.00% | Stop loss was based on a recent high |
| 18 Jul 11 | Buy | 1 | 47.72 | 42.44 | 47.71 | -0.19% | |
| 21 Nov 11 | Sell | 1 | 38.02 | 42.07 | 38.12 | -2.47% | |
| 12 Dec 11 | Sell | 1 | 29.71 | 33.8 | 31.05 | -32.76% | Stock gapped up |
| 19 Mar 12 | Buy | 1 | 34.87 | 32.52 | 32.98 | -80.43% | |
| 28 Mar 12 | Sell | 1 | 31.29 | 35 | 28.63 | 71.70% | |
| 31 May 12 | Sell | 1 | 27.93 | 30.44 | 28.27 | -13.55% | |
| 8 Jun 12 | Sell | 1 | 27.08 | 28.78 | 27.53 | -26.47% | Stop loss was based on high of the bar. |
| 29 Jun 12 | Buy | 1 | 31.55 | 27.53 | 31.18 | -9.20% | |
| 27 Jul 12 | Buy | 1 | 33.09 | 31.08 | 31.85 | -61.69% | |
| 22 Aug 12 | Buy | 1 | 32.83 | 31.32 | 31.64 | -78.81% | |
| 12 Sep 12 | Buy | 1 | 34.33 | 31.55 | 34.03 | -10.79% | |
| 1 Oct 12 | Buy | 1 | 35.34 | 34.03 | 35.47 | 9.92% | Stop loss was based on a recent low. |
| 9 Nov 12 | Sell | 1 | 34.03 | 36.33 | 35.66 | -70.87% | Stop loss was based on a recent high |
| 19 Nov 12 | Buy | 1 | 35.92 | 33.68 | 33.94 | -88.39% | |
| 13 Dec 12 | Sell | 1 | 33.18 | 34.98 | 34.08 | -50.00% | |
| 12 Feb 13 | Sell | 1 | 33.49 | 34.97 | 33.9 | -27.70% | Stop loss was based on a recent high |
| 4 Mar 13 | Buy | 1 | 35.43 | 32.86 | 37.82 | 93.00% | |
| 8 Apr 13 | Buy | 1 | 37.72 | 35.47 | 37.38 | -15.11% | Stop loss was based on a recent low |
| 15 May 13 | Buy | 1 | 37.52 | 36.06 | 38 | 32.88% | |
| 4 Jun 13 | Sell | 1 | 37.59 | 39.07 | 38.34 | -50.68% | |
| 21 Jun 13 | Sell | 1 | 35.76 | 37.86 | 37.05 | -61.43% | |
| 1 Aug 13 | Buy | 1 | 39.66 | 37.53 | 37.68 | -92.96% | Stop loss was based on a recent low |
| 30 Sep 13 | Sell | 1 | 36.2 | 37.33 | 36.04 | 14.16% | |
| 20 Nov 13 | Buy | 1 | 37.8 | 35.59 | 38.41 | 27.60% | |
| 20 Dec 13 | Buy | 1 | 39.72 | 37.63 | 39.29 | -20.57% | |
| 22 Jan 14 | Buy | 1 | 41.3 | 38.83 | 41.04 | -10.53% | |
| 14 Mar 13 | Buy | 1 | 43.25 | 41.58 | 44.95 | 101.80% | |
| 9 May 13 | Sell | 1 | 45.49 | 48.3 | 45.42 | 2.49% | |
| 4 Jun 13 | Buy | 1 | 46.59 | 44.52 | 45.74 | -41.06% | |
| 28 Jul 14 | Sell | 1 | 40.67 | 41.87 | 40.27 | 33.33% | |
| 14 Oct 14 | Sell | 1 | 32.68 | 34.86 | 34.53 | -84.86% | |
| 27 Oct 14 | Sell | 1 | 31.18 | 33.78 | 33.54 | -90.77% | |
| 31 Dec 14 | Sell | 1 | 27.01 | 30.23 | 25.13 | 58.39% | |
| 29 Jan 15 | Sell | 1 | 24.4 | 26.33 | 26.33 | -100.00% | Stop loss was based on a recent high |
| 15 Apr 15 | Buy | 1 | 25.6 | 23.91 | 25.4 | -11.83% | |
| 1 May 15 | Buy | 1 | 28.65 | 25.58 | 27.86 | -25.73% | |
| 27 May 15 | Sell | 1 | 26.18 | 27.88 | 25.44 | 43.53% | |
| 11 Jun 15 | Sell | 1 | 23.95 | 25.44 | 24.4 | -30.20% | |
| 1 Jul 15 | Sell | 1 | 22.35 | 24.46 | 22.15 | 9.48% | |
| 20 Jul 15 | Sell | 1 | 20.86 | 22.15 | 18.01 | 220.93% | |
| 21 Aug 15 | Sell | 1 | 16.53 | 18.09 | 16.3 | 14.74% | |
| 21 Sep 15 | Sell | 1 | 14.24 | 15.99 | 13.47 | 44.00% | |
| 12 Oct 15 | Sell | 1 | 12.64 | 13.9 | 11.66 | 77.78% | Stop loss was based on a recent high |
| 4 Dec 15 | Sell | 1 | 8.05 | 9.4 | 5.72 | 172.59% |
Analysis
As mentioned in the previous post, the results for SWN are brutal. From 2010 to 2015, the total loss is -4.26. In other words, if I risk $1 per trade, I would have lost $4.26 at the end of 2015.
The main reason for this lousy performance is due to the behaviour of SWN. It does not have any sustained price movement from 2010 to Apr 2014. Prices tend to move in one direction for a few days, reverse for another few days, then reverse again. Even if the main direction stays, the cha-cha movement of the price action leads to too many trades being stopped out and too many false signals.
There are two possible reasons I can think of that could have caused such price action:
- SWN is an energy stock and energy stocks are hard to trade? I can only verify this by testing out the system on other energy stocks.
- Low volume stocks can be hard to trade as we need enough people to be interested in the stock in order for it to trend.
The chart below seems to favour the low volume hypothesis:
We can see quite clearly that volume increased significantly in 2015 and the stock trended well. Consequently, the strategy performed well in 2015 as well.
Here’s a summary of the strategy’s annual performance from 2010 to 2015:
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| -2.04 | -0.97 | -4.09 | -1.01 | -0.31 | 4.15 |
2012 was the worst year, which is not surprising given that the stock was in some sort of horizontal consolidation that year.
One plus point about this strategy is that it performs well in a downtrend as well. Previously, I have problems with downtrending stocks, but this strategy seems to work well in both up and down trends. It will be good if I can figure out a way to prevent trading in years like 2010 and 2012. Could volume be a good indicator of which stocks are suitable?
More data is needed.
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