| Date | Trade | Quantity | Entry | Stop Loss | Exit | Percentage Profit | Remarks |
| 2 Feb 17 | Buy | 1 | 28.63 | 26.67 | 28.5 | -6.63% | |
| 24 Feb 17 | Sell | 1 | 24.87 | 27.54 | 25.71 | -31.46% | |
| 11 Apr 17 | Sell | 1 | 24.35 | 25.59 | 25.16 | -65.32% | |
| 6 Jun 17 | Buy | 1 | 37.2325 | 35.51 | 35.63 | -93.03% | |
| 20 Jun 17 | Buy | 1 | 39.4825 | 36.41 | 38.31 | -38.16% | |
| 1 Sep 17 | Buy | 1 | 42.5 | 40.21 | 43.16 | 28.82% | |
| 10 Oct 17 | Buy | 1 | 47.8575 | 44.53 | 48.11 | 7.59% | |
| 30 Oct 17 | Buy | 1 | 50.6675 | 48.11 | 51.3175 | 25.42% | |
| 11 Jan 18 | Buy | 1 | 56.45 | 50.94 | 59.25 | 50.82% | |
| 15 Feb 18 | Buy | 1 | 61.1975 | 54.38 | 59.88 | -19.33% | |
| 12 Mar 18 | Buy | 1 | 61.75 | 59.34 | 61.51 | -9.96% | |
| 13 Apr 18 | Buy | 1 | 59.2925 | 53.65 | 56.23 | -54.28% | |
| 24 Apr 18 | Sell | 1 | 55.5075 | 59.81 | 57.58 | -48.17% | |
| 4 May 18 | Buy | 1 | 58.7125 | 55.13 | 62.53 | 106.56% | |
| 25 Jun 18 | Sell | 1 | 61.6625 | 66.45 | 61 | 13.84% | |
| 30 Aug 18 | Buy | 1 | 70.075 | 66.75 | 68.27 | -54.29% | |
| 1 Oct 18 | Buy | 1 | 71.04 | 66.23 | 67.9 | -65.28% | |
| 11 Oct 18 | Sell | 1 | 60.5425 | 70.2 | 52.44 | 83.90% | |
| 20 Dec 18 | Sell | 1 | 34.0075 | 37.65 | 34.38 | -10.23% | |
| 25 Jan 19 | Buy | 1 | 39.7375 | 36.6 | 34.1375 | -178.49% | Stock gapped down |
| 7 Mar 19 | Sell | 1 | 37.775 | 40.19 | 39.51 | -71.84% | |
| 12 Mar 19 | Buy | 1 | 40.715 | 38.34 | 43.02 | 97.05% | |
| 20 May 19 | Sell | 1 | 38.1375 | 41.11 | 35.71 | 81.67% | |
| 20 Jun 19 | Buy | 1 | 38.8775 | 35.81 | 40.31 | 46.70% | |
| 18 Jul 19 | Buy | 1 | 42.5975 | 40.38 | 43.07 | 21.31% | |
| 6 Sep 19 | Buy | 1 | 45.0975 | 39.75 | 44.7 | -7.43% | |
| 12 Nov 19 | Buy | 1 | 52.95 | 49.95 | 51.07 | -62.67% | |
| 7 Jan 20 | Buy | 1 | 60.0775 | 57.67 | 59.56 | -21.50% | Stock gapped down |
| 5 Feb 20 | Buy | 1 | 62.9975 | 58.06 | 67.5475 | 92.15% | Stock gapped down |
| 7 Apr 20 | Buy | 1 | 67.67 | 60.92 | 68.85 | 17.48% | |
| 18 May 20 | Buy | 1 | 87.605 | 75.33 | 86.81 | -6.48% | |
| 21 Jul 20 | Buy | 1 | 105.562 | 97.86 | 100.88 | -60.79% | |
| 13 Aug 20 | Buy | 1 | 114.92 | 109.06 | 126.43 | 196.42% | |
| 28 Sep 20 | Buy | 1 | 130.402 | 119.04 | 136.61 | 54.64% | |
| 28 Oct 20 | Sell | 1 | 130.135 | 137.91 | 133.893 | -48.33% | Stock gapped up |
| 11 Dec 20 | Sell | 1 | 128.432 | 134.95 | 134.14 | -87.57% | |
| 16 Mar 21 | Buy | 1 | 133.565 | 124.57 | 126.12 | -82.77% | |
| 1 Apr 21 | Buy | 1 | 135.723 | 123.74 | 152.27 | 138.09% | |
| 11 May 21 | Sell | 1 | 142.25 | 152.47 | 143.55 | -12.72% | |
| 28 May 21 | Buy | 1 | 163.025 | 151.76 | 198.565 | 315.49% | |
| 17 Aug 21 | Sell | 1 | 194.28 | 204.3 | 204.3 | -100.00% | |
| 23 Aug 21 | Buy | 1 | 209.71 | 194.3 | 221.2 | 74.56% | |
| 15 Oct 21 | Buy | 1 | 217.8 | 205.11 | 313.5 | 754.14% | |
| 5 Jan 22 | Sell | 1 | 283.24 | 313.3 | 284.38 | -3.79% | |
| 28 Jan 22 | Sell | 1 | 216.5 | 248.23 | 248.23 | -100.00% | |
| 23 Feb 22 | Sell | 1 | 210.15 | 257.85 | 235 | -52.10% | |
| 17 Mar 22 | Buy | 1 | 246.22 | 206.5 | 272.06 | 65.06% | |
| 6 Apr 22 | Sell | 1 | 249.34 | 282.48 | 181.98 | 203.26% | |
| 29 Jun 22 | Sell | 1 | 158.14 | 176.97 | 155.67 | 13.12% | |
| 28 Jul 22 | Buy | 1 | 179.61 | 161.72 | 180.92 | 7.32% | Stock gapped down |
| 29 Aug 22 | Sell | 1 | 160.2 | 185.2 | 141.71 | 73.96% | |
| 23 Sep 22 | Sell | 1 | 124.03 | 139.22 | 128.23 | -27.65% | |
| 7 Nov 22 | Buy | 1 | 142.54 | 130.61 | 154.82 | 102.93% | |
| 23 Nov 22 | Buy | 1 | 160.83 | 154.82 | 159.59 | -20.63% | |
| 27 Dec 22 | Sell | 1 | 148.57 | 170.41 | 152.84 | -19.55% | |
| 13 Jan 23 | Buy | 1 | 166.62 | 151.41 | 209.62 | 282.71% | |
| 6 Mar 23 | Buy | 1 | 239.25 | 204.21 | 231.3 | -22.69% | |
| 15 Mar 23 | Buy | 1 | 242.44 | 231.3 | 262.37 | 178.90% | |
| 8 May 23 | Buy | 1 | 287.8 | 270.71 | 303.2 | 90.11% | Stopped out just before the massive gap up |
| 13 Jul 23 | Buy | 1 | 445.18 | 413.46 | 450.6 | 17.09% | |
| 10 Aug 23 | Sell | 1 | 421.09 | 456.42 | 443.12 | -62.35% | |
| 22 Aug 23 | Buy | 1 | 470.9 | 403.11 | 455.25 | -23.09% | |
| 18 Sep 23 | Sell | 1 | 437.83 | 461.63 | 439.03 | -5.04% | |
| 10 Oct 23 | Buy | 1 | 458.14 | 432.48 | 450.88 | -28.29% | |
| 1 Dec 23 | Sell | 1 | 461.97 | 489.21 | 481.1 | -70.23% |
Net Win
Overall, I have a net win of 1569%. In other words, if I risk $1 per trade, I would have a profit of $15.69. There was a total of 65 trades, so the net win is 24 cents per trade.
However, note that this net win is calculated based on the stop loss, not the capital required. For instance, if 1% of my account is $500 (i.e., account size = $50,000), and my entry price is $20 with a stop loss at $16, here’s how the calculation goes:
Risk per share = $20-$16=$4
Number of shares to purchase = $500/$4 = 125
Cost of trade = 125*20 = $2500 = 5% of account size.
Even though my stop loss represents 1% of my account, the capital required is 5% of my account. Hence, the risk is significantly larger. In addition, in cases where the stop loss is very tight, I may not have enough cash in my account to pay for the stock.
Comments
Today’s practice is a bit haphazard because I keep telling myself it is better to have a losing trade than to miss a large trend. I guess this is the con of using some sort of trend following system. In addition, I am also aware of how NVDA plunged in 2022 due to the CHIPS ban and how it rallied in 2023 due to the AI hype. So I kept trying to benefit from these trends, at least subconsciously.
Ultimately, I have a net profit because NVDA trended very well due to the chips shortage during the pandemic and the AI hype.
Would this strategy perform will with other not as trending stocks? Should I trade this strategy mainly on the ‘trendy’ stocks, stocks that keep appearing on the news?
If I only consider the trades from 2017 to 2019, I have a net loss of 252%. In other words, if I risk $1 per trade, I would lose a total of $2.52 at the end of 2019.
Although the stock grew more than 20 times from 2017 to 2023, vs only about 5.5 times from 2010 to 2016 (yesterday’s practice), I was more profitable yesterday as I was more selective in my entry.
Throughout the practice today, I felt it was a bit pointless as I was just recklessly entering trades. I would prefer a more systematic approach to determine the entry. Perhaps I need to study my trades better to determine what is a good setup. That means I cannot close my Amibroker software as my drawings would be gone. My Amibroker license does not allow anymore free upgrade; would be good if I have the up-to-date license.
Leave a Reply