15 Dec 23 Practice Results (KR)

Ticker: KR

Date	Trade	Quantity	Entry	Stop Loss	Profit Target	Result	Remarks
20 Mar 19	Sell	1	24.14	25.347	22.3295	Loss after 17 days
30 May 19	Sell	1	22.88	24.024	21.164	Loss after 7 days
23 Jul 19	Sell	1	20.8	21.84	19.24	Loss after 9 days
7 Aug 19	Buy	1	22.49	21.3655	24.17675	Profit after 20 days
10 Oct 19	Sell	1	24.1	25.305	22.2925	Loss after 12 days
15 May 20	Sell	1	32.27	33.8835	29.84975	Loss after 31 days
30 Jun 20	Buy	1	34.32	32.604	36.894	Loss after 6 days	Price resumes after being stopped out
22 Oct 20	Sell	1	33.05	34.7025	30.57125	Profit after 13 days
20 Nov 20	Buy	1	33.06	31.407	35.5395	Loss after 9 days	Gap down, lost 9.3%
30 Dec 20	Buy	1	31.7	30.115	34.0775	Profit after 12 days
15 Mar 21	Buy	1	35.61	33.8295	38.28075	Profit after 12 days
10 May 21	Buy	1	38.19	36.2805	41.05425	Loss after 8 days	Price resumes after being stopped out
21 Jun 21	Buy	1	39.72	37.734	42.699	Loss after 11 days	Price resumes after being stopped out
16 Jul 21	Buy	1	39.12	37.164	42.054	Profit after 13 days
17 Aug 21	Buy	1	43.75	41.5625	47.03125	Profit after 5 days
15 Sep 21	Sell	1	41.51	43.5855	38.39675	Profit after 24 days
17 Nov 21	Sell	1	41.4	43.47	38.295	Loss after 7 days
26 Nov 21	Buy	1	43.47	41.2965	46.73025	Loss after 3 days.	Price resumes after being stopped out
5 Jan 22	Buy	1	46.43	44.1085	49.91225	Profit after 7 days
26 Jan 22	Sell	1	44.95	47.1975	41.57875	Loss after 24 days
1 Mar 22	Buy	1	47.29	44.9255	50.83675	Profit after 3 days
4 Apr 22	Buy	1	58.14	55.233	62.5005	Profit after 5 days
18 Aug 22	Buy	1	49.48	47.006	53.191	Loss after 21 days
3 Oct 22	Sell	1	43.47	45.6435	40.20975	Loss after 7 days
28 Nov 22	Buy	1	49.14	46.683	52.8255	Loss after 6 days
14 Dec 22	Sell	1	45.33	47.5965	41.93025	Loss after 58 days
9 Mar 23	Buy	1	46.72	44.384	50.224	Profit after 57 days	Entered before exiting the previous sell trade. Almost turned into a loss (highest price reached was 50.36)
13 Jun 23	Buy	1	46.71	44.3745	50.21325	Loss after 3 days.
17 Jul 23	Sell	1	46.21	48.5205	42.74425	Loss after 6 days
15 Aug 23	Sell	1	48.11	50.5155	44.50175	Profit after 18 days
17 Nov 23	Sell	1	42.47	44.5935	39.28475	Loss after 9 days

Net Win

Profit: 12 Loss: 19

Net win = 12*1.5-19 = -1

However, one trade resulted in a 9.3% loss because of a gap down. Hence, I would consider the net win to be -2 today.

Analysis

Today’s result is negative and kind of painful. If I have an alternative option, I would give up. But I do not have an alternative, so I have to make this work. This feeling is similar to the frustration of looking for a life partner. You try so long until you wonder if she will ever appear. When she finally appears, everything just falls into place so easily. So is this the wrong path for me? Maybe I should really consider day trading?

I was stopped out of a few trades that reversed and resumed the trade direction predicted. If I was not stopped out of these trades, my results would be positive. That makes me wonder, is this ‘bad luck’ inevitable?

Why are results so bad today? Is it because the market was more choppy for the practice trades today as a large part of it spans the COVID period.

• Was this strategy unsuitable for such market? How do I tell when is a strategy suitable?
• Could I have used a better stop loss or is being stopped out and seeing the trend continue in the predicted direction inevitable? Should I use a ATR stop loss?
• Am I bad at this or are such losses inevitable? I know that every trader has drawdowns.
• Should I find another strategy or should I stick to this and perfect it? I believe I know the answer; I should not jump ship so easily. A rolling stone gathers no moss. Hopefully I get better and better at this, because I have no other options.

Why do I use a 5% stop loss instead of using the recent high/low as stop loss? The reason is I want to reduce the amount of discretionary decisions when practicing. I would like the setup to be as systematic as possible.

What is my edge?

As I was crocheting just now, I came to the realization that perhaps most strategies have no guaranteed edge. Yes, I can use a high risk reward ratio, but as I increase the reward, I decrease the win rate. Perhaps I can adjust my stop loss, but while the new stop loss criteria can prevent some trades from being stopped out, it will very likely also cause some otherwise profitable trades to be stopped out. There is no point in trying to fit the curve; no point adjusting the stop loss, profit target, entry criteria etc.

The only edge is ME. I can only practice more and learn more setups. Master those setups that resonate with me and get better and better at reading charts. Remember, Marty Schwartz uses an obscure theory and is wildly profitable. Is that theory superior? Not likely. If it is, it would be more popular and well known. So, what led to this outperformance? Him. The theory suits him, and he definitely outworks a lot of other traders.